Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Algeria
  • Congo (Kinshasa)
  • Mauritius
  • Egypt
  • Cameroon
  • Morocco
  • Equatorial Guinea
  • Gabon
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Tunisia
  • Niger

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,442$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(490 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,855.3}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 48.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,855.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $529$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(96.9 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{484.2}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 24.4)}}\) (asimptote \(484.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,755$ on 2020-05-14

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,242$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(50.7 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,205.4}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 106.2)}}\) (asimptote \(22,205.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $50$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(7.89 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(56.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,035$ on 2020-05-14

Mauritius⮸

Population $1,271,768$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $332$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(133 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{334.0}{1 + 10^{-0.103 (t - 15.2)}}\) (asimptote \(334.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(4.49 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.7}{1 + 10^{-0.084 (t - 11.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $0$ on 2020-05-14

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,829$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(402 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,189.5}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 63.8)}}\) (asimptote \(23,189.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $571$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(58.6 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{666.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(666.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,632$ on 2020-05-14

Cameroon⮸

Population $26,545,863$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,954$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(277 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,719.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,719.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $139$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(7.36 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{347.9}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 51.9)}}\) (asimptote \(347.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,262$ on 2020-05-14

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,607$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(539 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,370.3}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(7,370.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $190$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(50.2 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{182.4}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 19.1)}}\) (asimptote \(182.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,107$ on 2020-05-14

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $583$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(13.1 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{539.8}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(539.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-05-14

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $563$ on 2020-05-14

Gabon⮸

Population $2,225,734$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,104$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(4.41 \times 10^{0.043t}\) (doubling rate \(7.1\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(0.194 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{71.8}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 78.8)}}\) (asimptote \(71.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $912$ on 2020-05-14

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Tunisia recovered 73%
Niger recovered 71%

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,032$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(252 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,018.1}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 23.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,018.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $45$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(14.3 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43.2}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 16.5)}}\) (asimptote \(43.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $217$ on 2020-05-14

Niger⮸

Population $24,206,644$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $876$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(292 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{770.0}{1 + 10^{-0.089 (t - 11.7)}}\) (asimptote \(770.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $50$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(7.49 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{66.7}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 32.6)}}\) (asimptote \(66.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $149$ on 2020-05-14